economics Archives by Mark Murnahan

Have you heard the latest message of doom? Did you listen to it and soak it all in? The recession we have all talked about is not over, and there are a lot of very bright people saying that it is about to get a whole lot worse. Of course, bad news travels a lot faster than good news. So we must ask, what is the good news?

If you own, manage, or work for a company with under 500 employees, please pay attention. If you want to avoid economic apocalypse, I welcome you, too.

I have some words for you that I believe you really need to hear. I may not tell it just right, but I believe very strongly in what I am going to share with you. If you are too busy to read this, my blog has a “play” button, so at least listen to the audio version.

The economy is what you make of it. I mean “you” as an individual, and I also mean “you” collectively. I know that it may seem awkward for me to call intelligent humans “pack animals”, but let’s face it … we live, work, and operate as a herd of sorts. We make good decisions in groups, and we make bad decisions in groups. Not so differently than a herd of gazelle, when we sense danger, we run. We run far, and we run fast.

The things we envision, whether it is greener pastures on the horizon, or a pride of lions sneaking up on us, each lead us to take actions as a group. Some of us lead, and some of us follow, but when the herd makes a move, it affects us all. When we adapt a defeatist mentality as a group, we quickly create a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Today, we see the lions in a large scale in the stock market, and we see them on a smaller scale in our cities and small towns. It makes me question who is standing up for our herd, and to our herd, with a voice of reason, and possibility? I mean the possibility to stop running and resume peaceful grazing, even in our somewhat wilted and dangerous prairie.

Self-Fulfilling Prophecy Observed

Whether you like this example or you despise it, it is relevant to today’s market condition in America. An example of a self-fulfilling prophecy that recently occurred was in the ammunitions market. Americans heard a rumor that due to political unrest, potential legislative changes, and supply prices, that the cost of bullets would rise during the months of April and May 2011. What did gun owners do? We flocked to stores and bought up every bullet for every gun we own, and even guns we don’t own.

We heard the same things about gold and silver. The rush on silver has skyrocketed the price of silver to astronomical highs, while gold has become precious enough that if you have any gold fillings in your teeth, you had better sleep with your mouth closed.

These are not good signs. They are signs of people collectively fearing economic collapse, and chaos. Is this ridiculous or just nature? Actually it is a good mix of both. It is what happens when nature becomes ridiculous, but yet, it is nature, after all. So it is actually very “normal”. When it becomes completely ridiculous and out of control is when a big enough section of the human herd runs scared, and scares the whole bunch of us to run off a cliff.

Politics Schmolitics … Who Cares?

I don’t want to introduce formal political ideology here, because it is far beyond “who did this”, or “who said that”. If I talk politics, a whole lot of you will love what I have to say. A whole lot of you will hate what I have to say. Many of you will hate me just for the country I live in, or the style of my hair. Let’s face it, we each have a lot at stake, and we each have something to gain by working together.

This running of the human herd, not just in my country, but worldwide, has come to a point of complete turmoil. It is like an economic terrorism with every participant being a little bit of a terrorist in their own way.

The big question today is about how to calm the herd. How do we put things back in a comfortable place where we are not all scattering every time we hear another potential cause for alarm? This should matter above all others, because it ultimately relates to our survival, and the future of our society. That is not an alarmist speaking, but rather a number-analyzing businessman with a very good view of the business environment.

Sure, maybe some things are messed up. Maybe things will be different for a while. Should we really let speculation destroy us, or should we collectively change the speculation? I welcome your words, but don’t answer with words alone. Learn to embrace the control you have, and use it for action.

Maybe the Mayans, Hopi, I Ching, Nostradamus, and other predictions and promotions of the “2012 phenomenon” forecasting the end of humanity are spot on. If the end of the world is coming, wouldn’t it be be worse if it came and went, and the only result we saw was the loss of trust and friendship of every person around us, because we were the gazelle who didn’t stop the one beside us and say “Stop! Snap out of it! You’re scarier to the herd than the lions!”

Precautions Are Fine, but Paranoia Grows Exponentially

Go ahead and buy a few non-perishable foods, buy some more gold, silver, and ammunition. Heck, these are good things to have, anyway. I have enough guns and ammunition to start my own war, and I don’t have plans to stop eating anytime soon. Everybody has a certain level of security that makes things feel “right” for them. I have been just a touch on the extreme side of caution all of my life, so that is just “normal” for me.

When precautions become so extreme, and promoted widely, that it scares the herd, it is worse for each and every one of us! Sure, there are websites currently projecting a 4,000 point drop in the stock market by Summer 2011 when corporate reports come out. There are websites speculating that the U.S. Federal Reserve will collapse, USA will come under Martial Law, and banks, utilities, grocery stores, and all other businesses will cease operations while the U.S. dollar implodes. I would not even begin to start listing all of the doomsday projections I have seen lately promoting such a “flash point” in the world’s economy. Many of them are even quite persuasive and well-researched, but is that what you really want to believe, and hasten?

If you really want to start living under those conditions, just start believing it, acting like it, and then we can collectively make that happen, without fail.

How Can You Slow the Herd?

This is where you have a chance to stop your running and make a stand. If you own a company, work for a company, or buy from a company (and we all do), you have the power of choice.

Small business makes up the lion’s share of our economy. Small businesses, then, really do make up the herd (the masses), and the lions (the biggest segment of the economy) all at once. If you reach out to just one small business to make your purchases, and you spread the word to do the same, we can collectively stop the running. If you own or manage one of those small businesses, and you spread the word to other small business people and their employees to stand up and work together, we can make a monumental impact. When these things happen, we influence business and economy on all levels.

If we all stop spending, or keep spending fearfully, as if the economy is doomed to collapse, it really will. On the other hand, if we begin using our purchasing power wisely, and grow the strength of small businesses, we have the power to slow the herd before more of them run off the cliff.

Impending Economic Apocalypse in Summary

There is a whole lot of gloom and doom, but there are also websites and people who say that we can prevent complete chaos before it hits a flash point. Yes, I mean this website, and I mean this person, and I am not alone.

You can call me crazy, and you can keep stuffing your dollars into a coffee can buried in your back yard and see how well that will work for you. Maybe you will think that I am a radical on the side of positivity, and that you really don’t hold the power that I suggested above. The fact is that if you keep neglecting small business, and if small businesses keep rolling over and letting fear win, fears will come true.

You are right if you think that you, alone, do not have that power to slow the herd, and help small business stop operating from fear. I don’t either … no, I am just a small businessman who listens to small business people every day. I have over 20 years of marketing experience, and I know how to spread the word about growing a business, but this time, I am not just talking about a single company or a small handful of clients. I am talking about standing up as a complete herd to stop the stampede of failure.

I do not know it all, but what I know, without a doubt, is that if something important is promoted in a convincing way, to enough people, an exponential growth happens. That exponential growth can happen for our benefit, or for our demise. We are the ones, each of us, who choose to grow a more productive and peaceful herd.

Do You Want a More Peaceful Time in Business?

The way I see it is that we each must choose one of two outcomes, but when we chose, we should be committed to that decision. The overall choices as I view them are as follows:

A.)We can all be cautious, keep running like gazelle from the lion in the prairie, and fulfill the prophecy of an economic doomsday. This is what you can expect when small businesses continue to operate with fear, and stop making smart decisions about their future growth.

B.) We can form a pact to stop running scared and remind the others to “Stop! Snap out of it! You’re scarier to the herd than the lions!”

I cannot slow a herd with a few words from just one guy at a computer in Topeka, Kansas, USA. For that, my fellow herdsmen, I rely on you. I hope that you will see the lions of economic failure as a real hazard, but that you will also see the value of not running from doom, and begin preventing it.

If you really want disaster, just for the drama, give yourself a moment of reflection about those who will be here, and who tried our best to benefit others. If you keep running and stop trying, we will no longer share in your misery, nor appreciate your words. We are the people who speak with our deeds, and listen to yours. Yes, we are the people

That is how I see it. My name is Mark Aaron Murnahan, and I am glad we had this chance to meet. I hope that you will share this with the herd beside you, and help stop the stampede. Please add your comments here and get to know me.

How many people are in your email address list? How many friends do you have on Facebook? How many people follow you on Twitter? Don’t you think that between the bunch of you, and their friends, that we could start fixing things for all our benefit?

You may share this with the short web address: http://wb.gy/fix or by using the sharing links below.

Photo Credits:
Thompson’s Gazelle by fwooper via Flickr
Thompson’s gazelles, Masai Mara, Kenya by Paul Mannix via Flickr
Serengeti 2007 by Tony Young via Flickr

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Wouldn’t it be great if all of your marketing efforts worked just exactly as planned? Just imagine how great it would be if every piece of marketing material that you put on the Internet or elsewhere was a smash hit. That would be amazing! You could cut your expenses, earn squillions of dollars, enjoy more leisure, and retire early.

Now rub your eyes, grab another cup of coffee, stop daydreaming, and get to work. This is the real world, and we welcome you to come back and join us.

Nobody is brilliant 100 percent of the time. Some people come closer than others, but none of us walk on moonbeams while tending to our herd of unicorns. It is just not going to happen, but that should not discourage you from trying.

What is more important than creating 100 percent brilliance is to keep trying and testing new things. Even the least glamorous of your marketing efforts can have some level of success. This is more important to remember on the Internet than any other place. If you are holding back your efforts because it doesn’t peg your spectacular-ometer, you will miss out on a lot of what makes your brand what it is. Like any brand, your brand is made up of people … people and their opinions. These people are not all the same, and even some of your bottom percentile marketing efforts will be appealing to some of them.

Marketing with Juran’s Pareto Principle

A historic man named Joseph Juran observed that approximately 80 percent of effects come from 20 percent of causes. Many people know this as the 80 / 20 rule, and if you consider it carefully, you will likely find it to be both fascinating and virtually unbreakable. If you are unfamiliar, I strongly urge you to read the astonishing findings of Juran and the economist he named his studies for, Vilfredo Pareto. You may read more about The Pareto Principle and related Pareto Distribution at Wikipedia. Note that The Pareto Principle is not guesswork. It is a diligently researched, mathematically defined, widely documented, and well accepted socioeconomic principle.

Some ways the Pareto principle of 80 / 20 may be observed in your Internet marketing are as follows:

20 percent of your website pages receive 80 percent of web traffic.
20 percent of your marketing receives 80 percent of social media sharing.
20 percent of your blog articles receive 80 percent of reader comments.
20 percent of your marketing efforts can be tracked to 80 percent of your sales.

There are many other examples in which you will likely discover this principle to hold true, but I just want you to consider it and how you may apply it to your marketing efforts. Applying The Pareto Principle to your marketing may surprise you.

It is important to remember that if you reduce the 80 percent, you will also proportionally reduce the successful 20 percent. Do not neglect or devalue your 80 percentile efforts, because it has a purpose, too. Consider this: Have you ever received a compliment for something that you didn’t consider your best effort? I have, and sometimes for things that were not very popular or amazing to the masses, but were just right for somebody. I offer you this example that started with a home video of a little girl named Madeline from a few years back. I saw a message in it, so I put it on YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook. It did not have amazing results, but a few people thought it was cute. Those few people were worth it, and the video brought me just a bit closer to my next great 20 percentile effort. Plus, it is another tiny piece of branding that makes up the whole mix. Is it brilliant? Perhaps it is not brilliant, but do I think is it valuable? Yes, without a doubt.

Do Not Neglect Your 80 Percent Marketing

It is certain that you cannot achieve 100 percent brilliance, but even that 80 percent that is just “pretty good” may be what somebody was looking for. If you keep it to yourself, you will miss many opportunities for exposing your work to that smaller percentile of people who will think it is brilliant.

Nothing is an out of the box success. Any product or service offering will require a lot of effort to become successful. If you look at the 80 percent of less-than-brilliant efforts as simply wasted, it will not mean that the 20 percent left is all perfect. It will just mean that you still have only 20 percent of that 20 percent that is the most effective, but there will still be 80 percent that is less effective.

When you consider your marketing, remember that it cannot all be your best. There will always be a portion of your marketing which is more successful than the rest. If you try to reduce it down to just the things which are “perfect”, you will reduce your reach of a message that will work just great for some people.

So where does this article rank among my marketing efforts? I do not expect it to be a top 20 percentile piece of work. That does not matter to me as much as the fact that I am still trying, and getting even closer to my next 20-percenter all the time.

Remember This: Marketing talent requires practice.

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